TMTB EOD Wrap

Never a dull day in Tech these days. QQQs finished +46bps on a day we got news of an EA buyout, Claude Sonnet 4.5 released, news OAI will let users buy stuff directly through ChatGPT (starting with ETSY then SHOP) and will also launch a standalone social app for its video gen AI mode…what does the rest of the week have in store….

Let’s hit a quick recap of those news items first, before we get into individual names…

Anthropic releases Claude Sonnet 4.5. TheVerge recaps:

The model, Claude Sonnet 4.5, was announced today, and its ability to operate autonomously for 30 hours straight is a huge jump forward. Before, the company’s Opus 4 model made headlines in May for its ability to operate for seven hours.

It’s all a significant step in Anthropic’s battle to corner the market on both AI agents and AI coding. The company called Claude Sonnet 4.5 “the best model in the world for real-world agents, coding, and computer use” and said it “leads the market at using computers,” referencing the Computer Use feature Anthropic debuted nearly a year ago. The new model is particularly adept in fields like cybersecurity, financial services, and research, according to Anthropic. One of its beta-testers, Canva, said the new model helped with “complex, long-context tasks—from engineering in our codebase to in-product features and research.”

Some good discussion on the release on TMTB chat here

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Stripe Joins With OpenAI to Allow Etsy Purchases Via ChatGPT. Here’s TechCrunch:

ChatGPT users in the U.S. can now make Etsy and Shopify purchases within conversations, marking a next step toward the future of online shopping — both for consumers and the platforms that control product discovery, recommendation, and payments. In other words, OpenAI might be on the path to reshaping who holds power in e-commerce.

This type of frictionless experience has the potential to spark a new movement in how people shop online — one that moves away from search engines like Google and e-commerce platforms like Amazon toward conversational agents with curated recommendations, comparisons, and easy checkout experiences. (TMTB: ChatGPT conversion rate is high per similarweb)

It’s also setting the stage for new power brokers to emerge in e-commerce. Google and Amazon have long been the gatekeepers for retail discovery. If more purchases start inside AI chatbots, the firms behind them will suddenly have more control over what products are surfaced and what commissions or fees they charge.

ETSY +15% / SHOP +6% / GOOGL -1% on the news.. Unclear how meaningful actual impact will be to ETSY numbers as instant checkout items are not preferred in rankings, but definitely feels like a bit of a gamechanger in terms of the narrative. With 3p already improving over the last 2-3 weeks, it was another catalyst to get shorts to cover.

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OpenAI Is Preparing to Launch a Social App for AI-Generated Videos. Here’s Wired:

OpenAI is preparing to launch a stand-alone app for its video generation AI model Sora 2, WIRED has learned. The app, which features a vertical video feed with swipe-to-scroll navigation, appears to closely resemble TikTok—except all of the content is AI-generated. There’s a For You–style page powered by a recommendation algorithm. On the right side of the feed, a menu bar gives users the option to like, comment, or remix a video.

Users can create videoclips up to 10 seconds long using OpenAI’s next-generation video model, according to documents viewed by WIRED. There is no option to upload photos or videos from a user’s camera roll or other apps.

Another +ve for GPU + HDD demand…

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With that out of the way, let’s get to it…

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INTERNET

• CART -10% as DASH +5% expanded their partnership with CART. Starting October 1, about 2,700 Kroger stores will launch on the marketplace. The companies will also be deepening their partnership by collaborating on several innovations. Wedbush was out with a negative read saying DASH’s extended partnership with Kroger directly challenges CART’s position among intermediaries and says CART is at risk of losing incremental market share to other leading intermediaries and grocers that can leverage their scale and success in adjacent categories to capture demand for online grocery and convenience. Wells on the other hand was less negative, saying loss of grocery exclusivity has historically not led to any share changes and thinks any signaling around Kroger’s evolving partnership with Ocado is mroe important. Kroger accounts for 10%-15% of CART’s GTV, and even thought CART platform will still power Kroger’s same-day delivery service, read-through it undercuts CART’s preferred position at Kroger. In addition, less Kroger traffic means less ad impressions for CART

• RBLX +5% on the EA takeout read-through as it remains one of the few remaining public video assets along with TTWO. Yip was also out saying Aug bookings accelerated to 50% vs. July…The RoTrends data continues to hold up very well with 99 Nighs and Steal a brainrot helping offset slowing GAG growth, and we have our eye on Plants vs Brainrots which reached 3M CCUs last weekend…continue to like this one as we head into what should be a big Q3.