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TMTB EOD Wrap

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TMT Breakout
Jan 22, 2025
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QQQs +1.3% finished 1% from ATHs as AI semis/supply chain ripped following Project Stargate announcement. Questions and doubts around if $500B will ever come close to the actual # (see GavinBaker’s comment here) —

Unlikely it’s $500B — but even if its 25% of that still very big #s and at very least can’t argue it’s not an incremental positive to have more $’s flowing into the supply chain: ARM +15% the big winner given Softbank’s involvement; ANET +7% as their incumbents in MSFT and ORCL; CIEN +6% significant WDM supplier to both ORCL and MSFT: NVDA +4.5%; ORCL +7%; MSFT +4%. SOX now up 6 days in a row - hasn’t happened since June. MRVL ANET TSM ATHs. Things feeling better as it breaks range it’s been in since Oct:

Semis…Source: Bloomberg

Outside of that, NFLX +9.6% sold off a bit from its early highs but investors feeling a bit more confident heading into large cap earnings next week post their print: META +1.1% / AMZN +1.9%.

We’ve had a nice rally following CPI as no macro releases to upset bulls re-taking control - as we inch closer to the Fed next week and then PCE following, macro will begin to move back to the forefront.

Let’s get to the recap…

Internet

  • META +1.5% as investors feeling a little less fearful around fx headwinds following NFLX - Jefferies and DB also out with positive previews/checks.

  • AMZN +1.7% ATHs as Yipit put out a retail note saying int’l and us retail finished ~3 ppts above street in Q4 and US is tracking several ppts ahead in Q1. Cantor also reiterated top pick….a late pop in the last 5 minutes but didn’t see any news - we get AWS # tomorrow morning from Yipit

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