QQQs +1% with a late 1% sell off in the last 30 minutes. Treasuries saw selling pressure with yields spiking 7-14bps across the curve and Fed expects shifting in a hawkish direction (mkt only anticipating <70bps worth of cuts this year). BTC +6% topping $100k again - that was quick! Price action continues to be strong here and has led the QQQs both on downside and upside — continues to be one of best risk barometers to watch.
UK and US announced outlines of a bigger deal and admin says it’s the first of such agreements that will come in the near future. NYPost had an article saying Trump admin was thinking US could cut China tariffs to 50-54%% as soon as next week.
Some of the Key quotes from Trump Admin today:
Let’s get to the recap…
Internet
SHOP -20bps nice comeback after being down 8% after a mixed print where better GMV was offset by worse margins. The key for me was mgmt did a good job on the call alleviating some investor fears around China exposure saying only ~1 % of GMV is tied to Chinese imports losing de minimis treatment; cross-border flows are balanced US-inbound/outbound and predominantly intra-Europe, so tariff risk is “minimal for now.” This was investors main fears going into the print given consumer has generally been strong so that was a big relief. They also flagged continued ROI-positive marketing spend, an enterprise pipeline “as large as we’ve ever seen,” and flexibility to throttle spend if macro trends sour. Mgmt said April/early-May GMV trends remain strong >20 % y/y.
Bulls will say the tariff commentary was a big positive, SHOP continues to outpace bullish expectations on GMV and believe rising attach rate plus operating-expense leverage can push FCF margins above 20 % over the next few years. Partnerships with META and OAI should drive increased GMV going forward. Skeptics counter that mix shifts toward payments and international are capping gross-margin progress, while the three-month trial change and heavier marketing outlays are already slowing subscription MRR growth. I lean positive here as SHOP is a best in class co. playing offense rather than defense on spending and tariff exposure commentary was a big positive for me. I’m excited about OAI integration.
NFLX -1%: stock made a brief new high then dipping back below resistance on neg RSI divergence.
Watching a potential similar pattern with SPOT (break to new highs, then break back below resistance), with key $650 level. A break below that would give further confirmation that tariff safe haven trade taking a breather…(DASH, TTWO, RBLX similar looking charts…but NFLX and SPOT have been poster childs of the trade)…Remember this is the group that has led us higher from the bottom so a key tea leaf to watch — more worrisome for the market if it’s not coupled with strength in China/tariff names…
RBLX -50bps continues to take a breather. We think the benefits from the Epic/AAPL ruling outweigh Fortnite return to iOS store, so we lean towards adding on any further pullback, but would feel better if I see other tariff safe havens hold their highs…
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