TMTB EOD Wrap

QQQs +10bps as market sold off throughout the day despite the inline-ish CPI as components pointed to higher PCE and yields popped rising 4-6bps across the curve. 10 year near 4.5% and 30 year near 5%, important levels. Fed expects shifted in a slightly hawkish direction, pricing only 45bps worth of cuts, down from 50bps. BTC -3% (has typically been a leading indicator for risk on). Doesn’t feel like a bad spot to lower gross/nets.

Let’s get to the recap…

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INTERNET

• TTD +6.5% after announcement they would be added to SP500. BMO was out also positive saying AMZN DSP concerns are overblown and Kokai represents a major improvement in the ad buying experience and should unlock more spend over time.

• RBLX +60bps more good news as Variety reported they are rolling out a new licensing platform to streamline the process for IP rights holders to partner with creators on the gaming platform. NFLX, Lionsgate, and Sega are founding partners

• PINS +1.5% as TD Cowen raised PT to $43 on Strong Q2 Ad Trends after BofA pointed to better engagement trends yesterday. Fast money long here into the q and intra q checks point continued engagement improvements and ad growth in July. Bulls think a beat and better guide could put high teens/20% growth back on the table for 2025 exit rate with street still at 13% y/y growth in 2H despite easier comps. We’re warming up to it.

• META -1.5% breaking below ST 10D/20D moving averages for first time since late April as investors continue to digest Zuck’s spending splurge. We remain unexcited about the set up near-term given upside risks to opex. Chart also pointing to a bit more digestion here after failing to follow through on a new high on negative RSI divergence:

Source: Bloomberg

• RDDT -1%: we wrote yesterday EOD why we had taken down sizing here as July data still very much TBD.

• DASH -2.5% as Jefferies downgraded saying growth appears fully pried in and thinks affordability initiatives like Dashpass might cap future margin expansion + less room for take rate expansion

• Travel weak: ABNB -1.5%, BKNG -1.5% EXPE -2.5%…didn’t hear any great reason