TMTB EOD Recap
Good afternoon. QQQs finished down 40bps while ARKK +2.2%/IWM +1.8% outperformed. BTC +4% getting close to $50k (a potential sign of continued risk on in smaller names). An unwindy factor day with Mega Cap down 1% and high shorted stocks up close to 4% as software underperformed post a strong performance last week. Some tea leaves such as U and TTD up on early morning bad news tells us this trend might continue to have legs.
In internet, consensus longs underperformed except META which finished up 20bps. Didn’t see anything there other than the 5 commercials Temu had at the Super Bowl leading some to believe they aren’t slowing down their spending at all. This might have hit AMZN, which finished down 1.2% as well, although since EBAY and ETSY were both up 1-2% each, underperformance likely just a product of a de-grossing factor day (or maybe Jeff is selling some more?). We thought we would have had some follow through to Friday’s move, and since we weren’t seeing it, we trimmed back our short-term long and rolled our weeklies to next week. On short-term plays, we always want to see short-term price confirmation, and we just weren’t getting that early today — so we opened to the possibility we might be wrong and managed our risk. PINS followed through to the downside down another 4% post their miss last week. Getting closer to our first add price below $35. Other large caps underperformed with GOOGL -1% and NFLX -60bps. SNAP +5% - we didn’t see anything there so likely the result of some de-grossing/unwind/covering after the big move down last week. Chinese internet was strong with BABA +1.5%, PDD +3% post super bowl commercials last night, and JD +2%. ABNB +4% on the back of M science calling out positive January trends. Ride share names were weak with UBER -2.5% and LYFT -5%. Yipit was out negative on LYFT but fairly positive on UBER - we think UBER move might be a combination of some trying to front run a sell-the-news type event at their analyst day and getting caught in the mega cap unwind. CVNA +4% helped by the bid to highly shorted stocks: 3p yipit data comes out tomorrow and we expect a decel from the previous week, but comps get easier after this week and units are still tracking +8% vs street at +1%.