TMTB EOD

QQQs finished up 41bps as ARKK outperformed up 1% and the SOX finished up 33bps.  Crude was down 1.2%, yields were roughly flat, and BTC finished up 2%

In internet, housing names rallied with OPEN +5%, Z+4%, and RDFN +3%.  EBAY finished +3% on a yipit report calling out acceleration in US revs (although int’l decelerated)…presumably also some follow through from the Adevinta news yesterday as investors realized $2.2Bn in cash is 11% of EBAY’s mkt cap (pot’l for buyback).  RBLX finally had a green day +3% (had to make sure I wasn’t seeing things).  We think the likely private selling following earnings is largely done and stock can begin to work now as we thought mgmt. commentary on margins following earnings and at their investor day was a game changer for them (they finally got religion on margins following Q2 earnings debacle); in addition, we think 3p data typically released in the first week of Dec could be a nice catalyst as it’s likely to show another acceleration in bookings to 20-25% vs street still modeling low dd for Q4.  Bigger picture, we think RBLX has a lot to benefit from Gen AI as it will be easier and cheaper to make gaming content, which should benefit both top line and margins for them.  AMZN finished up 2% following share sales from Bezos yesterday as investors got excited about Cyber Monday/Re-invent catalysts beginning on Monday. AMZN also came out and said “recent events underscore the value of its selected Gen AI strategy, whereby customers can choose between many AI systems versus going all-in on OpenAI.”  GOOGL filled the whole gap pre-earnings and is less than 3% away from 52wk highs – stock strong again today +1%.   GOOGL launched a price matching campaign to win over OpenAI customers (WSJ), providing cloud credits if customers use its AI software and offering assistance switching to its platform.   META up another 1.1% to 52wk highs as investors got excited about open-source LLM drawing increased interest.  BIDU rose 6% on the back of a Nomura upgrade talking up AI strength while BABA finished flat as Jack Ma said he was putting off selling 10M in his family trust.

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In software, ADSK finished down 7% as better revs and billings were overshadowed by initial Fy25 revenue guide which called for 9% growth, below street at 11% and LT target of 10-15% (piper downgraded as well).  MSFT rose 1.3% following news Altman was going to return to OpenAI.  ZM was down 3% following through to the downside after their earnings report yesterday.  PLTR fell 50bps as sell-side called out NHS contract being smaller than expected.  ADBE hit new 52wk highs +1.4%. 

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In semis, AMD was the big winner +3%-- we have been proponents of the AMD story being cleaner and better r/r than NVDA, especially at this stage in the GPU cycle and as we head into Dec 6th Mi300 event.  NVDA fell 2.5% as the bull/bear debate wasn’t solved following the print yesterday.  SMCI fell 1% in sympathy and ARM rose 5%. 

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Elsewhere, HPQ rose 3% following solid results, AAPL finished up 35bps despite JPM/UBS notes talking down wait times for iPhones.  TSLA finished down 3% following price cuts in the US. COIN and HOOD finished up 3%+ on the back of BTC strength.

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That’s all for today – have a happy Thanksgiving! Thanks for all your support these last few months. See you on Friday!