NVDA Earnings Preview
NVDA reports Tues. night (7% implied move)
Where we’re at:
Stock just broke out to 52k highs with a rally straight up from $400. The previous high was where the stock peaked after last quarter as some peak EPS fears began to circulate. Recall: last quarter they beat revs by ~15% above buyside bogeys ($13.5B vs $11.7B) and guided similarly above the buyside – stock traded as high as $520 in postmarket (+12%) but ultimately finished flat and marked the top until yesterday.
Despite the recent rally, sentiment on the stock is more mixed than it has been the last two prints even though the stock remains a favorite in Tech. Stats from BAML’s investor survey show how sentiment has become incrementally less bullish, especially when looking out 1-2 years out. In their August 12th poll, split was 100% bullish/ 0% bearish. On Oct 20th, 70% were bullish/ 30% bearish, and now only 57% are bullish vs 43% bearish.
There isn’t much debate around this quarter other than how much upside there will be…