META PTSD thoughts: Zuck back to his old ways

Following a release that missed bogeys and fanned decel fears along with fears that Temu spend is slowing (lapping tougher comps), Zuck hopped on the call and got back to his old ways: “multi-year” investment cycle…will take several years…stock usually volatile during this stage of product playbook…new product rollouts could displace current products before monetizing…We’ve gotten more optimistic and ambitious on AI

Yes, they Zuck talked up AI spend last q but this was a change in tone and last quarter had a back drop of accelerating revenue…

To put it simply: META not only fanned the bear fears of decel/China spend slowing, but also added a new one: entering a new investment cycle that might displace some current revenue (eg, AI bot somehow taking engagement/time away from Reels/insta). Buyside numbers likely going down to ~$25 in ‘25 from $26, but with the decel + new investment cycle, the multiple is what gets the stock…

What to do with the stock here? At $415 = 18x a bear case of $23…